Part of the machine’s overall payback includes the progressive, so you’ll want to reduce the payback for the base game. You would normally expect to make 85% of that back, on average.

The progressive increments one cent for every $2.50.

Therefore the midpoint is $485, the expected value of the progressive as it stands now. It currently sits at $470, which seems high on the surface. To show the math in action, let’s use the following scenario: Or, you can use the worst case scenario – that it hits at the highest point, to be more conservative.īased on those data inputs, you can determine whether a game has an expected value that’s positive or negative. So you can use the midpoint of those two numbers as the expected value of that jackpot. You also know that the progressive will hit anywhere between now and the top.Advantage Slots opts for the same number for their calculation. In another recent post, I use 85% as that’s the low-end average on penny slots. You also know you’ll win money along the way, so you can calculate a rough estimate.

Based on how much it costs to increment it a penny, you can easily calculate the maximum amount of wagers you must make to reach the absolute top of the “Must Hit By” range, since the game lists the top number.

You can calculate how quickly the meter moves based on your bets.

The basic idea was calculated on a more generic level by this post on Advantage Slots.

As such, a more generic format might be advisable. These may still be accurate for some games, but six years has passed since that article, and there’s always the chance not every game is identical. An EV Formula for Bet-Based Must Hit By Machines The precise nature of those calculations may be helpful for those who are trying to get past the math and to whether you should look at a machine or not. Michael “Wizard of Odds” Shackleford took a look at the games a few years ago, and shared some data based on his experiences with a series of games. The same can’t be said for Ainsworth’s progressives, which are designed with a Must Hit By model that is based on coin-in. That can make it a bit more difficult to know what your expected value on a play will be and how much you’ll need to invest. In a previous post I spoke about the WMS G+ Deluxe progressives, and how they increment based on wins.

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